It’s August 18, 2007… 3 days until my fantasy football draft…
So far, one of my most important tools is the Average Draft Position computer that Antsports.com provides. It has helped me really look at who might be available at what round, to help me determine when to get a QB and a TE.
My first three picks are at 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5. Currently, I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.
I thought it would be a good idea to show you what the ADP spreadsheet looks like:
As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, the 1st round of picks:
Behind the numbers:
| Name | Position | ADP | High | Low | Standard Dev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tomlinson | RB | 1.01(.01) | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.07 |
| 2. S. Jackson | RB | 1.02(.00) | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.16 |
| 3. F. Gore | RB | 1.03(.84) | 1.02 | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| 4. L. Johnson | RB | 1.04(.62) | 1.02 | 2.01 | 1.64 |
| 5. Joseph Addai | RB | 1.04(.88) | 1.02 | 1.10 | 1.47 |
| 6. S. Alexander | RB | 1.06(.35) | 1.02 | 1.11 | 1.75 |
| 7. B. Westbrook | RB | 1.06(.89) | 1.03 | 2.04 | 1.89 |
| 8. Reggie Bush | RB | 1.07(.51) | 1.03 | 2.03 | 1.93 |
| 9. W. Parker | RB | 1.09(.19) | 1.03 | 2.07 | 1.99 |
| 10. P. Manning | QB | 1.11(.15) | 1.02 | 2.11 | 4.09 |
| 11. Rudi Johnson | RB | 1.11(.84) | 1.03 | 2.12 | 2.68 |
| 12. L. Maroney | RB | 1.12(.01) | 1.04 | 2.11 | 2.40 |
*Take a look at the Standard Deviation for Peyton Manning. He amasses fantasy points in the amount of the top 5 RB’s, but he gets picked towards the end of the 1st round and other QB’s around the league get picked much lower, despite earning just a few fantasy points less than Manning.
*Also, his high Standard Deviation number means that fantasy football drafters VARY so much where they believe his value is... some pick him as #2 overall, some picked him as far back as the end of the 2nd round (2.11). The higher the Standard Deviation, the farther away from the ADP most drafters have been selecting that particular player.
In tomorrow's post (Sunday), we'll look at some NFL players whose Standard Deviations are off the charts.
