Week one opponent

Firebirds Week 1 opponent

Position	Firebirds	Pts.	Detroit 69’ers	Pts.
QB	Peyton Manning (vs.NO)		Drew Brees (@Ind)
RB1	Willie Parker (@Cle)		Reggie Bush (@Ind)
RB2/WR	Tatum Bell (@Oak)		Ronnie Brown (@Wash)
WR1	Terrell Owens (vs.NYG)		Santanta Moss (vs.Mia)
WR2	Reggie Brown (@GB)		Andre Johnson (vs.KC)
TE	R. McMichael (vs.Car)		Eric Johnson (@Ind)
K	J. Wilkins (vs.Car)		Josh Brown (vs.TB)
Defense	Minnesota (vs.Atl)		Tennessee (@Jax)

*Here's week 1... suddenly I feel that my team isn't as deep as I'd like it to be... the only edge I seem to have is Peyton vs. Brees (slightly) and Minnesota vs. Tennessee as far as defense.

Here's my bench... any comments on who I should insert into the starting lineup?

Bench:

Brett Favre (QB) vs. Philly
Chester Taylor (RB) vs. Atlanta
Warrick Dunn (RB) at Minnesota
Selvin Young(RB) at Buffalo
Owen Daniels (TE) vs. KC
Vernand Morency (RB) vs. Philly
Jerricho Cotchery (WR) vs. NE
Arnaz Battle(WR) vs. Arizona
Jesse Chatman (RB-Miami) vs. Denver
Green Bay (DT)

Aug. 31 (Final Draft Picks)

DRAFT UPDATE (Final picks):

***15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th round picks!***

Firebirds' 15th round pick

Green Bay Packers (DT) / 15:08: Green Bay is an up and coming defense which came in 3rd in interceptions last year. Also, AJ Hawk and company get to face Grossman and Tarvaris Jackson 4 times this year... Yum yum...

Firebirds' 16th round pick

Jeff Wilkins (PK) / 16.05: Wilkins scored 155 fantasy points last year... 2nd place to R. Gould... Wilkins will continue to pile up points as long as the Rams can move the ball...

Firebirds' 17th round pick

Keary Colbert (WR) / 17.08: Colbert is very talented, and has had a great camp. He is now 2nd WR on that Carolina offense. Hopefully he can continue to get open looks as Steve Smith will command a lot of attention.


Firebirds' 18th round pick

Najeh Davenport (RB) / 18. 05: A little insurance for Willie Parker... just in case.

My current roster (Firebirds):

QB: Manning

RB1: Willie Parker (16 TD's last year)

RB2/Flex: Tatum Bell (I'm starting to regret this one)

WR1: Terrell Owens (13 TD's last year)

WR2: Reggie Brown

TE: Randy McMichael

PK: Jeff Wilkins

DT: Minnesota Vikings

Bench: Brett Favre (QB), Chester Taylor (RB), Warrick Dunn (RB), Najeh Davenport (RB), Owen Daniels (TE), Vernand Morency (RB), Jerricho Cotchery (WR), Bobby Wade (WR), Keary Colbert (WR), Green Bay (DT)

Starting lineups:

1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT

or

1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT

Click here to follow my team,
the HILO FIREBIRDS
http://www.antsports.com/ffldata/draft_status.asp?LID=0869&Year=2007

Aug. 21 (TODAY is DRAFT DAY)

It’s August 21, 2007… The DRAFT is TODAY…
I have the 8th pick

12-man, PPR (point per reception) $50 Keeper league at Antsports.com

$220 first place prize (plus a chance at bonuses)

*Each team has 12 hours to make a selection (draft pick)

Want to see the draft as it unfolds in "real" time?

Click here to follow my team,
the HILO FIREBIRDS
http://www.antsports.com/ffldata/draft_status.asp?LID=0869&Year=2007

Roster size: 18

Starting lineups:
1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT or
1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

*I traded to get the 2.1 pick, but I traded away my 4th and 6th round picks, and also got an extra 5th and 9th round pick as part of the deal.

The draft starts at 7:30 p.m. Eastern (1:30 p.m. Hawaii Standard)

I was thinking Bush at 1.8, and TO or Marvin Harrison at 2.5
I WAS thinking Steve Smith at 2.1 but my gut tells me that if Peyton is available at 2.1 I should take him…

We’ll see…

I’ll keep you updated through the day…

Go FIREBIRDS!!!!

Aug. 20 (Studs outside the top 12)

It’s August 20, 2007… my fantasy football draft will take place tomorrow evening…

The draft starts at 7:30 p.m. Eastern… which is 1:30 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time. It sure is nice to be in Hawaii with the time difference. My advisory (final) class ends at 2:05 p.m., so I’ll be checking the draft website to see if the 7 drafters (league opponents) have already made their picks.

According to the Antsports.com Average Draft Position calculator, the projected first 12 picks include 11 runningbacks and one quarterback. Are wide receivers that DEVALUED that they don’t earn picks in the 1st round? You make that decision.

Here are 2006 total fantasy point totals in PPR (point per reception) leagues, in order from what they are being drafted currently:


Behind the numbers:

Antsports.com ADP with PPR Fantasy Pts.

ADP	Name	Position	Total Fantasy Points	fantasy pts/game
1.	Tomlinson	RB	474.3	29.6
2.	S. Jackson	RB	419.4	26.2
3.	F. Gore	RB	333	20.8
4.	L. Johnson	RB	374.9	23.4
5.	Joseph Addai	RB	228.6	14.3
6.	S. Alexander	RB	148.4	14.8
7.	B. Westbrook	RB	334.6	22.3
8.	Reggie Bush	RB	267.6	16.7
9.	W. Parker	RB	298.6	18.7
10.	P. Manning	QB	362.5	22.7
11.	Rudi Johnson	RB	238.2	14.9
12.	L. Maroney	RB	157.9	11.3

*Can you see any of these players below, with their total fantasy points, be justified in being picked in the 1st round? Maybe…

Fantasy Studs outside the top 12

ADP	Name	Position	Total Fantasy Points	fantasy pts/game
14.	Steve Smith	WR	259.7	18.6
18	Marvin Harrison	WR	303.6	19
20.	M. Jones-Drew	RB	273.7	17.1
21.	Terrell Owens	RB	281	17.6

Aug. 19 (Uncertain players)

It’s August 19, 2007… 2 days until my fantasy football draft…

Good news today! Everyone in our $50 keeper league has paid up. Last team (which has the 3rd selection) just made the payment this morning, and the league is ready to go. I have the 8th pick. The question is… does Reggie Bush fall to me at the 8 spot? With his pass-catching ability, R.Bush is gold in a PPR (point per reception) league.

Yesterday, I mentioned the Average Draft Position calculator and we looked at the top 10. Today, I’d like to look at the players with high standard deviations, players that are being picked high AND low because drafters aren’t sure about them. In one draft, they can be 3rd rounders, in another draft, they go as late as the 8th round.

I look at them as hidden gems possibly worth taking a risk on…

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, here are a few I noticed (with high standard deviations):



Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / High Standard Deviations

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
28. C. Portis	RB	3.06(.43)	2.01	5.09	8.63
30. Thomas Jones	RB	3.06(.87)	1.12	6.10	9.16
38. Brandon Jacobs	RB	4.02(.09)	1.12	6.08	10.32
45. Cadillac Williams	RB	4.11(.05)	1.12	7.11	9.57
56. Tony Gonzalez	TE	5.10(.65)	2.10	8.04	13.65
60. Adrian Peterson	RB	6.02(.30)	2.07	8.12	11.29
69. Jamal Lewis	RB	6.08(.47)	2.03	8.10	13.18
106. DeShaun Foster	RB	9.05(.42)	2.07	12.06	14.66
119. Lendale White	RB	10.04(.21)	7.07	13.10	14.72
128. Muhsin Muhammad	WR	10.06(.64)	6.03	13.04	18.73

*Look at their ADP… I believe these players will perform better than their calculated ADP. If you can draft them at or slightly after their ADP, I think you’ll get value. I guess you can call these players my sleepers… but we’ll see…

See you tomorrow! We’ll look at the fantasy pts of the top RB’s compared to the fantasy pts of the top WR’s in a PPR league… You’ll be surprised…

Aug. 18 (Average Draft Position)

It’s August 18, 2007… 3 days until my fantasy football draft…

So far, one of my most important tools is the Average Draft Position computer that Antsports.com provides. It has helped me really look at who might be available at what round, to help me determine when to get a QB and a TE.

My first three picks are at 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5. Currently, I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.

I thought it would be a good idea to show you what the ADP spreadsheet looks like:

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, the 1st round of picks:

Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / Antsports.com

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
1. Tomlinson	RB	1.01(.01)	1.01	1.02	0.07
2. S. Jackson	RB	1.02(.00)	1.01	1.03	0.16
3. F. Gore	RB	1.03(.84)	1.02	1.08	1.09
4. L. Johnson	RB	1.04(.62)	1.02	2.01	1.64
5. Joseph Addai	RB	1.04(.88)	1.02	1.10	1.47
6. S. Alexander	RB	1.06(.35)	1.02	1.11	1.75
7. B. Westbrook	RB	1.06(.89)	1.03	2.04	1.89
8. Reggie Bush	RB	1.07(.51)	1.03	2.03	1.93
9. W. Parker	RB	1.09(.19)	1.03	2.07	1.99
10. P. Manning	QB	1.11(.15)	1.02	2.11	4.09
11. Rudi Johnson	RB	1.11(.84)	1.03	2.12	2.68
12. L. Maroney	RB	1.12(.01)	1.04	2.11	2.40

*Take a look at the Standard Deviation for Peyton Manning. He amasses fantasy points in the amount of the top 5 RB’s, but he gets picked towards the end of the 1st round and other QB’s around the league get picked much lower, despite earning just a few fantasy points less than Manning.

*Also, his high Standard Deviation number means that fantasy football drafters VARY so much where they believe his value is... some pick him as #2 overall, some picked him as far back as the end of the 2nd round (2.11). The higher the Standard Deviation, the farther away from the ADP most drafters have been selecting that particular player.

In tomorrow's post (Sunday), we'll look at some NFL players whose Standard Deviations are off the charts.

Aug. 17 (Wide Receivers - pts/game)

It’s August 17, 2007… 4 days until my fantasy football draft…

(I have enlisted a $50 team in a 12-man keeper league on Antsports.com. One of the things I like about Antsports is that it features a PPR (points per reception) scoring system, if you choose.)

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.


Behind the numbers:

Wide Receiver Fantasy Pts/game

Name	Total fantasy pts.	TD’s	fantasy pts./game	#games w/20+fantasy pts.
1. Marvin Harrison	303.6	12	19.0	6
2. Terrell Owens	281	13	17.6	8
3. Torry Holt	271.8	10	17.0	5
4. Reggie Wayne	271	9	16.9	4
5. Chad Johnson	268.4	7	16.8	2
6. Donald Driver	268.1	8	16.8	5
7. Steve Smith	259.7	8	18.6	5
8. Lee Evans	259.1	8	16.2	3
9. Roy Williams	255.2	7	16.0	5
10. T.J. Houshmandzadeh	252.7	9	18.1	6
11. Andre Johnson	249.1	5	15.6	5
12. Javon Walker	243.7	8	15.2	2

Aug. 16 RB's and receptions

Here's the top receiving rb's in 2006:

1. Steven Jackson:
90 Rec. 806 yards 3 TD's

2. Reggie Bush:
89 Rec. 748 yards 2 TD's

3. Brian Westbrook:
77 Rec. 699 yards 4 TD's

4. Frank Gore:
61 Rec. 485 yards 1 TD

5. Kevin Jones:
61 Rec. 520 yards 2 TD's

6. Tiki Barber (retired)

7. LaDainian Tomlinson:
56 Rec. 508 yards 3 TD's

8. Ladell Betts (3rd down back)

9. Ahman Green:
47 Rec. 405 yards 1 TD

10. Michael Pittman (3rd down back)

11. Maurice Jones-Drew:
46 Rec. 436 yards 2 TD

Crunching the numbers ("Mr. Jackson is amazing")

1. Steven Jackson led all RB's with 806 yards receiving AND 90 receptions.

2. Although Reggie Bush was targeted 122 times compared to Steven Jackson with 110 targets, Bush caught less passes than Jackson and averaged fewer yards than Jackson.

3. Using the PPR formula (primarily used by Antsports.com), LT (29.6 fantasy pts/game) scored 15 more TD's than Steven Jackson, but only averaged 3.4 fantasy points/game more than Steven Jackson (26.2 fantasy pts/game).

4. Only 6 wide receivers caught more passes than Steven Jackson.

*See you tomorrow.

Aug. 15 (Hurricane Flossie passes by us)

Taking a little break from fantasy football, just wanted to mention that Hurricane Flossie just passed our little town of Hilo.




It's extremely wet outside, but we were able to avoid the heavy winds that normally come with hurricanes. Schools were closed these past 2 days as a result of Flossie (I teach 8th graders for a living).

What DID give us a "shake" was a 5.3 earthquake Monday night. THAT took us by surprise. That was located near Kalapana, near our active volcano, Kilauea.

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss with more fantasy football thoughts and numbers...

Aug. 14 (fantasy pts/game)

It’s August 14, 2007… 7 days until my fantasy football 12-man draft…
and there's a hurricane heading towards us... Hawaii Island... Hurricane Flossie...

Well, back to our draft preparation...

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

Crunching the numbers:
(PPR Antsports.com 12-man league)

ADP: (pts/game from 2006 season)

1. Tomlinson: 29.6 pts/game
2. Jackson: 26.2 pts/game
3. Gore: 20.8 pts/game
4. L.Johnson: 23.4 pts/game
5. Addai: 14.3 pts/game
6. Alexander: 14.8 pts/game
7. Westbrook: 22.3 pts/game
8. Bush: 16.7 pts/game
9. W.Parker: 18.7 pts/game
10. Manning: 22.7 pts/game
11. Rudi Johnson 14.9 pts/game
12. Maroney: 11.3 pts/game

14. Steve Smith: 18.6 pts/game

31. Houshmandzadeh 18.1 pts/game

*Rudi Johnson is consistent year after year... and is picked in the 1st round in most drafts... I'm not sure about that one...

Aug 13 (RB's in action)

It’s August 13, 2007… 8 days until my fantasy football 12-man draft…

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

In the back of my head I know that since I will spend my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s, I’m starting to look for possible RB2’s that hopefully I can draft in the later rounds.

There were a number of pre-season NFL games this weekend. I took a look at the various runningbacks who were somewhat active.

Behind the numbers:

Marion Barber (Dallas):
Attempts: 12
Yards: 48
TD: 0
Longest Run: 16

Julius Jones (Dallas):
Attempts: 6
Yards: 22
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Jamal Lewis (Cle):
Attempts: 4
Yards: 20
TD: 0
Longest Run: 15

Deshaun Foster (Caro):
Attempts: 5
Yards: 62
TD: 0
Longest Run: 31

M. Lynch (Buff):
Attempts: 2
Yards: 3
TD: 0
Longest Run: 2

Adrian Peterson (Minn):
Attempts: 11
Yards: 33
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Tatum Bell (Det):
Attempts: 6
Yards: 19
TD: 0
Longest Run: 11

Brandon Jacobs (NYG):
Attempts: 4
Yards: 15
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Brandon Jackson (GB):
Attempts: 16
Yards: 57
TD: 0
Longest Run: 15

*One set of numbers that jumped out at me were the number of carries for both Brandon Jackson of Green Bay and Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. This bodes keeping an eye on. It almost seems like an auditioning of some sort… but why didn’t Lynch get more attempts for Buffalo?

*The second set of numbers are from Deshaun Foster in Carolina. There’s a lot of hype for D. Williams this year, but Foster is currently the starting rb and he showed why this weekend. Who will be the handcuff? Foster or Williams? This also bodes keeping an eye on.

Talk to you again tomorrow!

Aug. 12 (Quarterbacks)

It’s August 12, 2007… 9 days until my fantasy football draft…

Having picks 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5 in my 12-man draft affords me to draft Peyton Manning. I’ve never drafted Peyton before so I’m extremely tempted right now… but… is Peyton worth it?

Behind the numbers:

According to 5 popular Fantasy Football Magazines, here is an average ranking of the top 10 quarterbacks as of June:

*ESPN Fantasy Football 2007
*Fanball.com magazine
*FFIndex
*CBS Sportsline
*Sporting News Fantasy magazine

1. Peyton Manning Consensus #1
2. Carson Palmer FFIndex had him at #4
3. Tom Brady FFIndex had him at #2
4. Drew Brees CBS Sportsline had him at #5
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb FFIndex had him at #10
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Phillip Rivers
9. Vince Young
10. John Kitna

According to Antsports.com, “live” money drafts running since Aug. 1 had this current ranking:

1. Peyton Manning ADP: 1.09 (9th pick in the 1st round)
2. Carson Palmer ADP: 2.10 (10th pick in the 2nd round)
3. Tom Brady ADP: 3.06 (6th pick in the 3rd round)
4. Drew Brees ADP: 3.10 (10th pick in the 3rd round)
5. Marc Bulger ADP: 3.11 (11th pick in the 3rd round)
6. Donovan McNabb ADP: 4.12 (12th pick in the 4th round)
7. Jon Kitna ADP: 6.01 (1st pick in the 6th round)
8. Tony Romo ADP: 6.05 (5th pick in the 6th round)
9. Vince Young ADP: 6.12 (12th pick in the 6th round)
10. Phillip Rivers ADP: 7.12 (12th pick in the 7th round)

Behind more numbers:

1. Guess who had the highest points/per game average last year (2006)?
*1st Donovan McNabb 24.4 points/game
*2nd Peyton Manning 23.2 points/game
*3rd Drew Brees 20.5 points/game




(Are McNabb’s injury tendencies THAT concerning that it's justifiable he’s being picked as the 6th ranked quarterback DESPITE producing the highest pts/game average? You make that choice... if he's available in the 5th round, he's mine...)

2. Byron Leftwich is being picked as the 28th ranked QB… behind Culpepper, Jason Campbell, McNair, Trend Green, and countless others. There ARE weapons that he can pass to on that Jacksonville team. It's easy to pick him up after the 10th round as your 2nd QB... no real risk here, only upside.

Talk to you tomorrow

August 11 (my draft position)

It’s August 11, 2007… 10 days until my fantasy football draft…

I have enlisted a $50 team in a 12-man keeper league on Antsports.com. One of the things I like about Antsports is that it features a PPR (points per reception) scoring system, if you choose.

The other players in the league are relatively quiet but there have been two trades so far… That’s what I love about Antsports. You can trade draft picks with the other members.

Behind the numbers:

I have the 8th pick in my draft, so my first 7 picks would look like such:

*Projected picks based on Antsports ADP (average draft position calculator)
*Data is based on actual "money" drafts since Aug. 1



1st round: 8th pick (8th) Reggie Bush (rb)
2nd round: 5th pick (17th) Torry Holt (wr)
3rd round: 8th pick (32nd) Marques Colston (wr)
4th round: 5th pick (41st) Cadillac Williams (rb)
5th round: 8th pick (56th) Tony Gonzalez (te)
6th round: 5th pick (65th) Darrell Jackson (wr)
7th round: 8th pick (80th) Ladell Betts (rb)

Trading up, and losing a 4th and 6th round pick
On July 29, I worked out a trade with the 12th spot team:

My team gives :
Pick : 3.08
Pick : 4.05
Pick : 6.05
12th spot team gives :
Pick : 2.01
Pick : 5.12
Pick : 9.12

****Rationales for trade****
1. To attain 2 top wide receivers in the 2nd round
2. Wide receivers score well in the PPR scoring format


Following the trade, my NEW projected picks

1st round: 8th pick (8th) Reggie Bush (rb)
2nd round: 1st pick (13th) Travis Henry (rb) or Steve Smith (wr)
2nd round: 5th pick (17th) Torry Holt (wr) or Terrell Owens (wr)
5th round: 8th pick (56th) Tony Gonzalez (te) or Jamal Lewis (rb)
5th round: 12th pick (60th) Jon Kitna (qb) or Tony Romo (qb)
7th round: 8th pick (80th) Ladell Betts (rb) or Brandon Jackson (rb)
8th round: 5th pick (89th) Matt Leinart (qb) or Eli Manning (qb)

Possible developments that could influence my draft...
1. How far will Larry Johnson drop down in the draft when Aug. 21 comes around
2. Will I have to choose between Bush, Parker, Alexander, and Larry Johnson for the 8th pick?

Tomorrow's blog... June's QB rankings (from 5 of the top Fantasy Football magazines) as compared to ADP rankings as of Aug. 1 - Aug. 12 drafts... you may be a little surprised...