Aug. 18 (Average Draft Position)

It’s August 18, 2007… 3 days until my fantasy football draft…

So far, one of my most important tools is the Average Draft Position computer that Antsports.com provides. It has helped me really look at who might be available at what round, to help me determine when to get a QB and a TE.

My first three picks are at 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5. Currently, I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.

I thought it would be a good idea to show you what the ADP spreadsheet looks like:

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, the 1st round of picks:

Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / Antsports.com

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
1. Tomlinson	RB	1.01(.01)	1.01	1.02	0.07
2. S. Jackson	RB	1.02(.00)	1.01	1.03	0.16
3. F. Gore	RB	1.03(.84)	1.02	1.08	1.09
4. L. Johnson	RB	1.04(.62)	1.02	2.01	1.64
5. Joseph Addai	RB	1.04(.88)	1.02	1.10	1.47
6. S. Alexander	RB	1.06(.35)	1.02	1.11	1.75
7. B. Westbrook	RB	1.06(.89)	1.03	2.04	1.89
8. Reggie Bush	RB	1.07(.51)	1.03	2.03	1.93
9. W. Parker	RB	1.09(.19)	1.03	2.07	1.99
10. P. Manning	QB	1.11(.15)	1.02	2.11	4.09
11. Rudi Johnson	RB	1.11(.84)	1.03	2.12	2.68
12. L. Maroney	RB	1.12(.01)	1.04	2.11	2.40

*Take a look at the Standard Deviation for Peyton Manning. He amasses fantasy points in the amount of the top 5 RB’s, but he gets picked towards the end of the 1st round and other QB’s around the league get picked much lower, despite earning just a few fantasy points less than Manning.

*Also, his high Standard Deviation number means that fantasy football drafters VARY so much where they believe his value is... some pick him as #2 overall, some picked him as far back as the end of the 2nd round (2.11). The higher the Standard Deviation, the farther away from the ADP most drafters have been selecting that particular player.

In tomorrow's post (Sunday), we'll look at some NFL players whose Standard Deviations are off the charts.

Aug. 17 (Wide Receivers - pts/game)

It’s August 17, 2007… 4 days until my fantasy football draft…

(I have enlisted a $50 team in a 12-man keeper league on Antsports.com. One of the things I like about Antsports is that it features a PPR (points per reception) scoring system, if you choose.)

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.


Behind the numbers:

Wide Receiver Fantasy Pts/game

Name	Total fantasy pts.	TD’s	fantasy pts./game	#games w/20+fantasy pts.
1. Marvin Harrison	303.6	12	19.0	6
2. Terrell Owens	281	13	17.6	8
3. Torry Holt	271.8	10	17.0	5
4. Reggie Wayne	271	9	16.9	4
5. Chad Johnson	268.4	7	16.8	2
6. Donald Driver	268.1	8	16.8	5
7. Steve Smith	259.7	8	18.6	5
8. Lee Evans	259.1	8	16.2	3
9. Roy Williams	255.2	7	16.0	5
10. T.J. Houshmandzadeh	252.7	9	18.1	6
11. Andre Johnson	249.1	5	15.6	5
12. Javon Walker	243.7	8	15.2	2

Aug. 16 RB's and receptions

Here's the top receiving rb's in 2006:

1. Steven Jackson:
90 Rec. 806 yards 3 TD's

2. Reggie Bush:
89 Rec. 748 yards 2 TD's

3. Brian Westbrook:
77 Rec. 699 yards 4 TD's

4. Frank Gore:
61 Rec. 485 yards 1 TD

5. Kevin Jones:
61 Rec. 520 yards 2 TD's

6. Tiki Barber (retired)

7. LaDainian Tomlinson:
56 Rec. 508 yards 3 TD's

8. Ladell Betts (3rd down back)

9. Ahman Green:
47 Rec. 405 yards 1 TD

10. Michael Pittman (3rd down back)

11. Maurice Jones-Drew:
46 Rec. 436 yards 2 TD

Crunching the numbers ("Mr. Jackson is amazing")

1. Steven Jackson led all RB's with 806 yards receiving AND 90 receptions.

2. Although Reggie Bush was targeted 122 times compared to Steven Jackson with 110 targets, Bush caught less passes than Jackson and averaged fewer yards than Jackson.

3. Using the PPR formula (primarily used by Antsports.com), LT (29.6 fantasy pts/game) scored 15 more TD's than Steven Jackson, but only averaged 3.4 fantasy points/game more than Steven Jackson (26.2 fantasy pts/game).

4. Only 6 wide receivers caught more passes than Steven Jackson.

*See you tomorrow.

Aug. 15 (Hurricane Flossie passes by us)

Taking a little break from fantasy football, just wanted to mention that Hurricane Flossie just passed our little town of Hilo.




It's extremely wet outside, but we were able to avoid the heavy winds that normally come with hurricanes. Schools were closed these past 2 days as a result of Flossie (I teach 8th graders for a living).

What DID give us a "shake" was a 5.3 earthquake Monday night. THAT took us by surprise. That was located near Kalapana, near our active volcano, Kilauea.

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss with more fantasy football thoughts and numbers...

Aug. 14 (fantasy pts/game)

It’s August 14, 2007… 7 days until my fantasy football 12-man draft…
and there's a hurricane heading towards us... Hawaii Island... Hurricane Flossie...

Well, back to our draft preparation...

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

Crunching the numbers:
(PPR Antsports.com 12-man league)

ADP: (pts/game from 2006 season)

1. Tomlinson: 29.6 pts/game
2. Jackson: 26.2 pts/game
3. Gore: 20.8 pts/game
4. L.Johnson: 23.4 pts/game
5. Addai: 14.3 pts/game
6. Alexander: 14.8 pts/game
7. Westbrook: 22.3 pts/game
8. Bush: 16.7 pts/game
9. W.Parker: 18.7 pts/game
10. Manning: 22.7 pts/game
11. Rudi Johnson 14.9 pts/game
12. Maroney: 11.3 pts/game

14. Steve Smith: 18.6 pts/game

31. Houshmandzadeh 18.1 pts/game

*Rudi Johnson is consistent year after year... and is picked in the 1st round in most drafts... I'm not sure about that one...

Aug 13 (RB's in action)

It’s August 13, 2007… 8 days until my fantasy football 12-man draft…

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

In the back of my head I know that since I will spend my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s, I’m starting to look for possible RB2’s that hopefully I can draft in the later rounds.

There were a number of pre-season NFL games this weekend. I took a look at the various runningbacks who were somewhat active.

Behind the numbers:

Marion Barber (Dallas):
Attempts: 12
Yards: 48
TD: 0
Longest Run: 16

Julius Jones (Dallas):
Attempts: 6
Yards: 22
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Jamal Lewis (Cle):
Attempts: 4
Yards: 20
TD: 0
Longest Run: 15

Deshaun Foster (Caro):
Attempts: 5
Yards: 62
TD: 0
Longest Run: 31

M. Lynch (Buff):
Attempts: 2
Yards: 3
TD: 0
Longest Run: 2

Adrian Peterson (Minn):
Attempts: 11
Yards: 33
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Tatum Bell (Det):
Attempts: 6
Yards: 19
TD: 0
Longest Run: 11

Brandon Jacobs (NYG):
Attempts: 4
Yards: 15
TD: 0
Longest Run: 7

Brandon Jackson (GB):
Attempts: 16
Yards: 57
TD: 0
Longest Run: 15

*One set of numbers that jumped out at me were the number of carries for both Brandon Jackson of Green Bay and Adrian Peterson of Minnesota. This bodes keeping an eye on. It almost seems like an auditioning of some sort… but why didn’t Lynch get more attempts for Buffalo?

*The second set of numbers are from Deshaun Foster in Carolina. There’s a lot of hype for D. Williams this year, but Foster is currently the starting rb and he showed why this weekend. Who will be the handcuff? Foster or Williams? This also bodes keeping an eye on.

Talk to you again tomorrow!

Aug. 12 (Quarterbacks)

It’s August 12, 2007… 9 days until my fantasy football draft…

Having picks 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5 in my 12-man draft affords me to draft Peyton Manning. I’ve never drafted Peyton before so I’m extremely tempted right now… but… is Peyton worth it?

Behind the numbers:

According to 5 popular Fantasy Football Magazines, here is an average ranking of the top 10 quarterbacks as of June:

*ESPN Fantasy Football 2007
*Fanball.com magazine
*FFIndex
*CBS Sportsline
*Sporting News Fantasy magazine

1. Peyton Manning Consensus #1
2. Carson Palmer FFIndex had him at #4
3. Tom Brady FFIndex had him at #2
4. Drew Brees CBS Sportsline had him at #5
5. Marc Bulger
6. Donovan McNabb FFIndex had him at #10
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Phillip Rivers
9. Vince Young
10. John Kitna

According to Antsports.com, “live” money drafts running since Aug. 1 had this current ranking:

1. Peyton Manning ADP: 1.09 (9th pick in the 1st round)
2. Carson Palmer ADP: 2.10 (10th pick in the 2nd round)
3. Tom Brady ADP: 3.06 (6th pick in the 3rd round)
4. Drew Brees ADP: 3.10 (10th pick in the 3rd round)
5. Marc Bulger ADP: 3.11 (11th pick in the 3rd round)
6. Donovan McNabb ADP: 4.12 (12th pick in the 4th round)
7. Jon Kitna ADP: 6.01 (1st pick in the 6th round)
8. Tony Romo ADP: 6.05 (5th pick in the 6th round)
9. Vince Young ADP: 6.12 (12th pick in the 6th round)
10. Phillip Rivers ADP: 7.12 (12th pick in the 7th round)

Behind more numbers:

1. Guess who had the highest points/per game average last year (2006)?
*1st Donovan McNabb 24.4 points/game
*2nd Peyton Manning 23.2 points/game
*3rd Drew Brees 20.5 points/game




(Are McNabb’s injury tendencies THAT concerning that it's justifiable he’s being picked as the 6th ranked quarterback DESPITE producing the highest pts/game average? You make that choice... if he's available in the 5th round, he's mine...)

2. Byron Leftwich is being picked as the 28th ranked QB… behind Culpepper, Jason Campbell, McNair, Trend Green, and countless others. There ARE weapons that he can pass to on that Jacksonville team. It's easy to pick him up after the 10th round as your 2nd QB... no real risk here, only upside.

Talk to you tomorrow