Aug. 21 (TODAY is DRAFT DAY)

It’s August 21, 2007… The DRAFT is TODAY…
I have the 8th pick

12-man, PPR (point per reception) $50 Keeper league at Antsports.com

$220 first place prize (plus a chance at bonuses)

*Each team has 12 hours to make a selection (draft pick)

Want to see the draft as it unfolds in "real" time?

Click here to follow my team,
the HILO FIREBIRDS
http://www.antsports.com/ffldata/draft_status.asp?LID=0869&Year=2007

Roster size: 18

Starting lineups:
1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT or
1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 PK 1 DT

My first three picks: 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5

*I traded to get the 2.1 pick, but I traded away my 4th and 6th round picks, and also got an extra 5th and 9th round pick as part of the deal.

The draft starts at 7:30 p.m. Eastern (1:30 p.m. Hawaii Standard)

I was thinking Bush at 1.8, and TO or Marvin Harrison at 2.5
I WAS thinking Steve Smith at 2.1 but my gut tells me that if Peyton is available at 2.1 I should take him…

We’ll see…

I’ll keep you updated through the day…

Go FIREBIRDS!!!!

Aug. 20 (Studs outside the top 12)

It’s August 20, 2007… my fantasy football draft will take place tomorrow evening…

The draft starts at 7:30 p.m. Eastern… which is 1:30 p.m. Hawaii Standard Time. It sure is nice to be in Hawaii with the time difference. My advisory (final) class ends at 2:05 p.m., so I’ll be checking the draft website to see if the 7 drafters (league opponents) have already made their picks.

According to the Antsports.com Average Draft Position calculator, the projected first 12 picks include 11 runningbacks and one quarterback. Are wide receivers that DEVALUED that they don’t earn picks in the 1st round? You make that decision.

Here are 2006 total fantasy point totals in PPR (point per reception) leagues, in order from what they are being drafted currently:


Behind the numbers:

Antsports.com ADP with PPR Fantasy Pts.

ADP	Name	Position	Total Fantasy Points	fantasy pts/game
1.	Tomlinson	RB	474.3	29.6
2.	S. Jackson	RB	419.4	26.2
3.	F. Gore	RB	333	20.8
4.	L. Johnson	RB	374.9	23.4
5.	Joseph Addai	RB	228.6	14.3
6.	S. Alexander	RB	148.4	14.8
7.	B. Westbrook	RB	334.6	22.3
8.	Reggie Bush	RB	267.6	16.7
9.	W. Parker	RB	298.6	18.7
10.	P. Manning	QB	362.5	22.7
11.	Rudi Johnson	RB	238.2	14.9
12.	L. Maroney	RB	157.9	11.3

*Can you see any of these players below, with their total fantasy points, be justified in being picked in the 1st round? Maybe…

Fantasy Studs outside the top 12

ADP	Name	Position	Total Fantasy Points	fantasy pts/game
14.	Steve Smith	WR	259.7	18.6
18	Marvin Harrison	WR	303.6	19
20.	M. Jones-Drew	RB	273.7	17.1
21.	Terrell Owens	RB	281	17.6

Aug. 19 (Uncertain players)

It’s August 19, 2007… 2 days until my fantasy football draft…

Good news today! Everyone in our $50 keeper league has paid up. Last team (which has the 3rd selection) just made the payment this morning, and the league is ready to go. I have the 8th pick. The question is… does Reggie Bush fall to me at the 8 spot? With his pass-catching ability, R.Bush is gold in a PPR (point per reception) league.

Yesterday, I mentioned the Average Draft Position calculator and we looked at the top 10. Today, I’d like to look at the players with high standard deviations, players that are being picked high AND low because drafters aren’t sure about them. In one draft, they can be 3rd rounders, in another draft, they go as late as the 8th round.

I look at them as hidden gems possibly worth taking a risk on…

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, here are a few I noticed (with high standard deviations):



Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / High Standard Deviations

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
28. C. Portis	RB	3.06(.43)	2.01	5.09	8.63
30. Thomas Jones	RB	3.06(.87)	1.12	6.10	9.16
38. Brandon Jacobs	RB	4.02(.09)	1.12	6.08	10.32
45. Cadillac Williams	RB	4.11(.05)	1.12	7.11	9.57
56. Tony Gonzalez	TE	5.10(.65)	2.10	8.04	13.65
60. Adrian Peterson	RB	6.02(.30)	2.07	8.12	11.29
69. Jamal Lewis	RB	6.08(.47)	2.03	8.10	13.18
106. DeShaun Foster	RB	9.05(.42)	2.07	12.06	14.66
119. Lendale White	RB	10.04(.21)	7.07	13.10	14.72
128. Muhsin Muhammad	WR	10.06(.64)	6.03	13.04	18.73

*Look at their ADP… I believe these players will perform better than their calculated ADP. If you can draft them at or slightly after their ADP, I think you’ll get value. I guess you can call these players my sleepers… but we’ll see…

See you tomorrow! We’ll look at the fantasy pts of the top RB’s compared to the fantasy pts of the top WR’s in a PPR league… You’ll be surprised…