Aug. 19 (Uncertain players)

It’s August 19, 2007… 2 days until my fantasy football draft…

Good news today! Everyone in our $50 keeper league has paid up. Last team (which has the 3rd selection) just made the payment this morning, and the league is ready to go. I have the 8th pick. The question is… does Reggie Bush fall to me at the 8 spot? With his pass-catching ability, R.Bush is gold in a PPR (point per reception) league.

Yesterday, I mentioned the Average Draft Position calculator and we looked at the top 10. Today, I’d like to look at the players with high standard deviations, players that are being picked high AND low because drafters aren’t sure about them. In one draft, they can be 3rd rounders, in another draft, they go as late as the 8th round.

I look at them as hidden gems possibly worth taking a risk on…

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, here are a few I noticed (with high standard deviations):



Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / High Standard Deviations

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
28. C. Portis	RB	3.06(.43)	2.01	5.09	8.63
30. Thomas Jones	RB	3.06(.87)	1.12	6.10	9.16
38. Brandon Jacobs	RB	4.02(.09)	1.12	6.08	10.32
45. Cadillac Williams	RB	4.11(.05)	1.12	7.11	9.57
56. Tony Gonzalez	TE	5.10(.65)	2.10	8.04	13.65
60. Adrian Peterson	RB	6.02(.30)	2.07	8.12	11.29
69. Jamal Lewis	RB	6.08(.47)	2.03	8.10	13.18
106. DeShaun Foster	RB	9.05(.42)	2.07	12.06	14.66
119. Lendale White	RB	10.04(.21)	7.07	13.10	14.72
128. Muhsin Muhammad	WR	10.06(.64)	6.03	13.04	18.73

*Look at their ADP… I believe these players will perform better than their calculated ADP. If you can draft them at or slightly after their ADP, I think you’ll get value. I guess you can call these players my sleepers… but we’ll see…

See you tomorrow! We’ll look at the fantasy pts of the top RB’s compared to the fantasy pts of the top WR’s in a PPR league… You’ll be surprised…

Aug. 18 (Average Draft Position)

It’s August 18, 2007… 3 days until my fantasy football draft…

So far, one of my most important tools is the Average Draft Position computer that Antsports.com provides. It has helped me really look at who might be available at what round, to help me determine when to get a QB and a TE.

My first three picks are at 1.8, 2.1, and 2.5. Currently, I'm gradually leaning more towards using my 1st pick on my RB1 (pick 1.8) and my 2nd (2.1) and 3rd (2.5) picks on high-end WR’s.

I thought it would be a good idea to show you what the ADP spreadsheet looks like:

As of August 10 – Aug. 17 drafts, the 1st round of picks:

Behind the numbers:

Average Draft Position (ADP) / Antsports.com

Name	Position	ADP	High	Low	Standard Dev.
1. Tomlinson	RB	1.01(.01)	1.01	1.02	0.07
2. S. Jackson	RB	1.02(.00)	1.01	1.03	0.16
3. F. Gore	RB	1.03(.84)	1.02	1.08	1.09
4. L. Johnson	RB	1.04(.62)	1.02	2.01	1.64
5. Joseph Addai	RB	1.04(.88)	1.02	1.10	1.47
6. S. Alexander	RB	1.06(.35)	1.02	1.11	1.75
7. B. Westbrook	RB	1.06(.89)	1.03	2.04	1.89
8. Reggie Bush	RB	1.07(.51)	1.03	2.03	1.93
9. W. Parker	RB	1.09(.19)	1.03	2.07	1.99
10. P. Manning	QB	1.11(.15)	1.02	2.11	4.09
11. Rudi Johnson	RB	1.11(.84)	1.03	2.12	2.68
12. L. Maroney	RB	1.12(.01)	1.04	2.11	2.40

*Take a look at the Standard Deviation for Peyton Manning. He amasses fantasy points in the amount of the top 5 RB’s, but he gets picked towards the end of the 1st round and other QB’s around the league get picked much lower, despite earning just a few fantasy points less than Manning.

*Also, his high Standard Deviation number means that fantasy football drafters VARY so much where they believe his value is... some pick him as #2 overall, some picked him as far back as the end of the 2nd round (2.11). The higher the Standard Deviation, the farther away from the ADP most drafters have been selecting that particular player.

In tomorrow's post (Sunday), we'll look at some NFL players whose Standard Deviations are off the charts.